9 August 1993

                                                                                Nagasaki

        Forty eight years ago today, Nagasaki was devastated by an atom bomb. The blast levelled 4.7 square kilometers in the heart of the city, killing an estimated 40,000 persons and injuring a roughly equal number.
        The world does not remember the bombing of Nagasaki as much as it remembers the bombing of Hiroshima, which took place three days earlier.
        Yet, Nagasaki represents a far greater tragedy than Hiroshima because Nagasaki need not have been bombed. Nagasaki was not the primary target (Kokura was), but bad weather prevented the bomber crew from finding Kokura, so they bombed Nagasaki instead.
        Moreover, it is not clear that a second atom bomb should have been dropped at all. Here, one can only speculate. One can surmise that the Japanese government, given a little more time, might have surrendered after seeing the full dimensions of the Hiroshima tragedy.
        On the other hand, one can also argue that many Japanese leaders, especially those in the military, were not prepared for an unconditional surrender.
        President Harry Truman of the United States justified the dropping of the atom bombs by arguing that the bomb ended the war more quickly. He estimated that 500,000 American lives would be lost if the United States invaded Japan. Gen. Douglas MacArthur estimated an invasion of Japan would cost more than a million American casualties.
        These estimates are probably reasonable. American military planners, unaware of the secret of the atom bomb, had thought in terms of more months of fighting. The plans called for the invasion of Kyushu with 767,000 Alllied troops on Nov. 1, 1945. The purpose of this invasion would be to secure the airfields to cover the main assault on Honshu, which was scheduled for March 1, 1946. With the surrender of Germany, it was possible to transfer 30 divisions from Europe to the Pacific.
        These invading forces would be opposed by 2,350,000 Japanese regulars, 250,000 garrison troops and about 32 million civilian militiamen. Because the Japanese would be defending their own soil, they were expected to fight with zangyaku-sei -- the brutal and savage spirit with which they had fought at Okinawa. There, over 110,000 Japanese and more than 12,000 Americans had been killed in action.
        All these estimates were rendered academic by the bomb.
        The day after the bomb fell on Nagasaki, the Japanese government substantially agreed to the demand of unconditional surrender that the Allies had enunciated at Potsdam. Emperor Hirohito ordered an end to all hostilities at 4 p.m., Aug. 15, Tokyo time, telling his people that they must ``endure the unendurable and suffer the insufferable.''
        As Edwin Reischauer observed, the Japan's leaders had expected to win the war through the superiority of the people's will power -- and the people had responded with every ounce of will they possessed, until they had been spiritually drained. Not just the cities, but even the hearts of the people had been burned out.
        For some time, neither Hiroshima nor Nagasaki tried to rebuild. The damage was just too massive. It was not until 1949 that the people in these two cities, with some prodding from the legislature, started to rebuild. In due time, the two cities recovered their prosperity -- but the people still remember.
        Every year since 1947, the citizens of both cities have held ceremonies to mourn and honor those who were sacrificed in the bombings and to call for the elemination of nuclear weapons. The cry is ``Never again!'' In Nagasaki, however, one might add, ``It need not have happened.''